Today, the 31st UN Climate Summit begins in Antalya (Turkey), with several open questions. One of the first questions is: who is actually in charge? While Turkey hosts COP31, Australia has been tasked with leading the negotiations. It remains unclear who truly holds the reins. 

And what will it be about? In any case, the discussion will cover reducing greenhouse gas emissions and providing funds to developing countries to help them prepare for climate change. It will cover achieving goals agreed at previous summits, as well as scaling down or phasing out fossil fuels.

Almost 200 countries are gathering to fight climate change, yet geopolitical tensions increasingly paralyze international climate diplomacy. Donald Trump’s withdrawal from climate cooperation, ongoing wars, and resistance from oil-producing countries are undermining cooperation.

Yet the same instability may be accelerating electrification more effectively than years of UN negotiations. How will this end?

The main theme will be electricity

Oil, coal, and gas are the primary cause of climate disruption. Three years ago, at the UN climate conference in Dubai, the world reached an agreement for the first time that we must eventually move away from fossil fuels.

But the summit’s main theme will be electricity. COP presidencies Australia and Turkey hope to bring all nations on board with a new ’35×35′ goal: By 2035, electricity must account for 35 percent of the global energy mix, up from 24 percent today.

That primary objective should help move the discussion between oil-producing nations on one side and the West and certain developing countries on the other out of the trenches.

The COP presidents believe they can achieve greater consensus by placing less emphasis on phasing out fossil fuels and more on electrification. Electricity is also a way of talking about fossil fuels without naming them.

After all, it seems that no one can truly be against electrification. For the EU, electrification helps the climate while also making energy bills more affordable.

To achieve the goal, this requires a massive expansion of electric mobility, industrial electrification, heat pumps, electricity networks, renewable generation, and storage at four times the current pace.

It would also make a major difference in the fight against climate disruption. If the goal is met, 18 million fewer barrels of oil would be burned every day by 2035.

With oil supplies vulnerable and prices volatile, electric vehicles, renewable electricity, and batteries are becoming instruments of energy security, not merely climate policy.

However, the pledge is voluntary and collective rather than an individual national obligation, and it does not guarantee that additional electricity will be carbon-free. Electrification and decarbonization are not synonymous.

United States

It will also be interesting to see how the United States chooses to make its voice heard. Under President Trump, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement – an accord aimed at limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” (with an aspiration to cap it at 1.5°C), and is once again going all-in on oil and shale gas. The chance of reaching new unanimous agreements in Antalya is therefore small.

The US retreat from international climate cooperation, opposition from Saudi Arabia and other fossil-fuel exporters, and geopolitical tensions make another binding global commitment to phase out fossil fuels highly unlikely.

At COP30 in Belém, countries failed to agree on a concrete roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. A parallel initiative, supported by the Netherlands and Colombia, subsequently emerged to bring together countries willing to move faster without waiting for unanimity.

Meanwhile, the latest UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 projects approximately 2.8°C of warming under current policies, far above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C ambition.

COP31 is therefore unlikely to produce a diplomatic breakthrough, but smaller coalitions could deliver practical agreements on electrification, investment, and infrastructure.

Following the recent US midterm elections and the defeat of Trump’s Republicans, the Democrats have announced that they will send a congressional delegation to Turkey.

China

The stance of major power China is also being watched with interest. And some fear a new geopolitical dependence on China. 

China dominates EV production, battery manufacturing and significant parts of clean-energy supply chains. Chinese manufacturers accounted for roughly 60% of worldwide electric car sales in 2025, while China produced nearly three-quarters of electric cars globally.

Europe risks replacing dependence on imported oil with dependence on Chinese batteries, vehicles, and critical materials. This strengthens the argument for European battery manufacturing, resilient supply chains, and investment in electricity infrastructure.

However, unlike conventional combustion-engine vehicles, EVs can operate on domestically produced electricity from multiple energy sources. That reduces exposure to international oil markets, supply interruptions, and geopolitical blackmail. Higher oil prices also improve the economic case for EVs, although high electricity prices can offset those benefits.

Progress is slow

Will the UN climate summit in Antalya (from 9 to November 20, 2026) do anything about heat and drought, such as those experienced during the past summer? In any case, the urgency is real. 

Steps have been taken, but progress is slow. The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement – the global pact aiming to limit warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 – was indeed a milestone. Yet, in the decade since, that ambitious goal has faded into an unattainable utopia.

But since the climate summit in Dubai, where countries reached a consensus to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’, formal negotiations have stalled. Geopolitical tensions have made mutual trust ‘fragile’.

And the biggest obstacles come from two groups. First, and maybe logically, the Arab oil-producing states (including Russia). Second, countries that may well want to transition to sustainability, but are barely in a position to do so.

Because reaching a unified agreement is difficult, countries are choosing other paths toward climate success. Hopefully, as many countries as possible will develop policies within their own borders.

But even if all countries implement their own established policies, we are heading toward a warming of approximately 2.8 degrees by the end of this century. Even if we meet the somewhat stricter international targets, such as those of the EU and the OECD, the figure remains 2.1 degrees.

Will the 35×35 target be met? Can COP31 turn economic necessity into lasting climate progress? We will find out on November 20, when the climate conference concludes.