According to the most optimistic scenario, the construction of new large nuclear power plants in Belgium will not be completed until the end of 2039 at the earliest. That is what a new study by the engineering firm Tractebel, part of the energy group Engie (which conducted a survey commissioned by the high-voltage grid operator Elia), reveals.
However, according to Tractebel, it is more likely that the nuclear power plant will be started up between 2042 and 2044. In the meantime, small nuclear power plants – the so-called small modular reactors – could be built by 2035. Although the technology is still in its infancy, in the best-case scenario, the first SMR of 20 to 350 megawatts could be operational by 2035.
Expected electricity shortage
It takes at least six years to select a site, prepare it, obtain the necessary permits and approvals, finalize the design, find an operator, and secure the required financing (billions of dollars). Only then can actual construction begin, a process that takes seven to nine years.
This also means that an alternative must be identified to address the projected electricity shortage by 2035. Last summer, the high-voltage grid operator Elia estimated that Belgium would require an additional 4.4 gigawatts of electricity by 2035. That is equivalent to more than four large nuclear power plants, such as Doel 4.
The arrival of more electric vehicles, heat pumps, and data centers, along with the expansion of the electrical industry, will increase electricity demand by more than a third over the next 10 years, from 80 terawatt hours in 2025 to 110 terawatt hours in 2035.
Several options
Elia’s message in June was that the Belgian government must develop a plan to address the shortage. One option is to extend the lifespans of the two remaining nuclear power plants, Doel 4 and Tihange 3, which will be finally closed in 2035. The operating life of both installations was extended last year from 40 to 50 years.
To address the looming shortage by 2035, several options exist. These include the accelerated expansion of wind energy in the Belgian North Sea, the further extension of existing nuclear power plants, and the installation of additional high-voltage cables to the United Kingdom.
The existing CRM subsidy mechanism can also ensure sufficient new capacity, for example, by supporting large-scale battery farms or gas-fired power plants. When domestic electricity demand rises faster than the supply from renewable or nuclear sources, we will be forced to rely on imported electricity or on thermal power stations.
Delayed plans
After part of the energy island was postponed and the ongoing concession auction for the first of three new wind farms in the North Sea was withdrawn, the plans for offshore wind energy have been delayed for years.
The previous government’s ambition to run cables from the energy island to wind farms in Denmark, for example, has also largely disappeared. It is therefore unlikely that offshore wind energy from outside Belgian waters can be connected by 2035.
