Belgium has raised its ambitions in its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), but still needs to make further efforts in renewable energy and energy efficiency in the coming years. But for the time being, the country will not be presented with a multi-million dollar bill.
If an EU member state fails to reduce its CO2 emissions sufficiently by 2030, it must purchase emission certificates from a member state that has performed better than expected – for example, a Scandinavian or Eastern European country with extensive forest cover. That scenario is currently off the table.
Inadequate plan
In October 2025, Belgium submitted a new version of its National Energy and Climate Plan to the European Commission – the first had been rejected by the Commission as inadequate.
In the plan, Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels, and the federal level explain how they will jointly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 47 percent by 2030 compared to 2005, as required by Europe. According to the Commission, our country has made progress, but weaknesses remain, and more effort is still needed in renewable energy and energy efficiency.
For example, there is still a lack of a long-term vision for the rollout of renewable energy technology by 2040, and the Belgian plan does not include a detailed timetable for the gradual phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. Belgium has a long tradition of inadequate climate plans, and now the Commission urges a clear step-by-step plan.
Challenges
In terms of energy efficiency, Belgium’s ambition is well below the EU target. The country needs to strengthen its legislative framework, among other things, to improve the integration of electricity, heating, and cooling networks into the energy system.
The multi-million euro bill has been avoided for now, but the plans still have to be realized. And that won’t be easy. Belgium will have to make a significant effort. For example, the Belgian energy mix will contain far too little renewable energy in 2030. Last year, only 13 onshore wind turbines were built in Flanders, and further expansion at sea is also proving difficult.
The transport sector is the only sector where emissions continue to increase year after year. The Commission urges Belgium to reduce car travel and encourage electrification. If Belgium fails to implement these recommendations sufficiently, it will still face a hefty bill.
Belgium ‘on track’
Belgium will, however, meet other obligations, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions in sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System. The Belgian plan, for example, includes measures for a 42.7 percent reduction compared to 2005, and Belgium can use the “anticipated flexibilities” (such as unused emission allowances transferred) to achieve the 47 percent target. Belgium is also on track to meet its land use and forestry targets if current plans are implemented correctly.
The Commission added that it will continue to support Member States in closing the gaps in the plans and will evaluate whether additional efforts are needed to achieve the collective objectives.
“The European Commission’s report confirms that Belgium is on track to meet its 2030 climate commitments,” says Federal Minister of Climate and Mobility Jean-Luc Crucke (Les Engagés) to conclude. “However, the same report also clearly states that the share of renewable energy is still far below the required level and that our primary energy consumption is still too high.”
Compared with its neighbours and the EU average, Belgium is behind on renewables and policy coherence, even if it avoids immediate sanctions. The climate targets are met on paper, but energy efficiency is insufficient, and the ambition for renewable energy is too low. Neighboring countries are moving faster with zero-emission zones, rail investment, and stronger incentives for electric mobility.
