The recent American and Israeli attacks on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliatory attacks, are having a huge impact on international aviation.

Due to the direct military threat and airspace closure, the three Arab hubs, Dubai (DXB), Doha (DOH), and Abu Dhabi (AUH), the world’s most important transfer hubs, have become virtually unusable for international air traffic at the same time, something that had never happened before.

Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are stranded because of the military escalation.

Logistical nightmare

The closure of airspace above the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain has created a logistical nightmare. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad have had to cancel most of their flights. This affects approximately 90,000 transfer passengers every day who normally travel between Europe/America and Asia/Australia via these hubs.

But there is also a global flight ban on all flights to the Middle East. Most European and American airlines have canceled their flights to the Gulf region for at least a few days. Asian and Indian airlines, which use Gulf hubs as gateways to Europe, are now also avoiding the region.

The Middle East is off-limits for aircraft

The Lufthansa Group, including Brussels Airlines, has suspended its flights to and from Tel Aviv until Sunday, March 7. Passengers can request a refund or rebook their flight for a later date. Destinations such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Beirut, Amman, and Erbil have also been canceled.

Air France-KLM has also canceled flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai, Dammam, Riyadh, and Beirut, and there are many others. The same goes for British Airways and Virgin Atlantic: they have suspended their flights to Dubai, Bahrain, and Doha. Virgin is even actively avoiding Iraqi airspace, which adds hours to their flights to India and the Maldives.

On the other side of the world, the same applies: United and Delta, for example, have canceled all flights to the region, including Dubai and Tel Aviv, for the coming days.

Air India has also put a complete stop to all flights to the Middle East and is now avoiding the region entirely, even for flights to London or New York. And although Istanbul is still open, Turkish Airlines has suspended all flights to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman.

Jamming of GPS signals

The Middle East region typically serves as the world’s central air traffic corridor, with Dubai as the world’s busiest international hub. However, once an area is designated an active war zone, standard insurance policies for commercial aircraft often become void. Due to strict security protocols, airlines are not allowed to fly.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks have also caused physical damage to airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In Dubai, a passenger terminal was damaged, and in Abu Dhabi, there have been casualties due to drone strikes.

Plus, GPS signals are currently being disrupted across the region on a large scale. This makes navigation extremely risky for passenger aircraft, especially at night or in bad weather.

Finally, if an aircraft encounters a problem over the desert, it must be able to land somewhere. Now that almost all major airports in the area are closed or unsafe, there is no backup plan or alternative airport.

Extreme detour routes

As a result of the escalation, aircraft now must make enormous detours, often via the north (over Central Asia and the Caspian Sea) or deep into the south (via Egypt and southern Saudi Arabia). But this increases flight times and fuel burn and can also create choke points in already-busy corridors.

For example, a flight from London to Singapore now takes 2 to 3 hours longer. This causes an explosive increase in fuel consumption, which is directly passed on in ticket prices.

Furthermore, the threat in the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices up by more than 10%. Fuel is one of the biggest cost items for airlines, which immediately puts pressure on their profit margins.

The point is that the remaining safe air corridors are also becoming congested, leading to additional delays and stricter restrictions by air traffic control in countries such as Turkey and Egypt.

Finally, Dubai and Doha are also crucial hubs for global air freight. The suspension of these operations will not only cause delays in the delivery of electronics, medical supplies, and machine parts between Asia and Europe, but also in the delivery of other goods. Still, it will also most likely lead to higher air freight rates.

Gloomy forecasts

According to FlightAware data, more than 3,400 flights directly serving the region have already been canceled in the first 48 hours after the attacks.

If the fighting does not subside within 48 hours, and it does not look like it will now, another 10,000 to 15,000 flights are expected to be canceled or severely diverted in the coming week. But aviation experts also warn that even if the firing stops today, it will take weeks for schedules to return to normal.