It has become fashionable in European automotive circles to speak of hydrogen in the past tense. The mood darkened further last week as Cummins confirmed it is halting electrolyser production at its Belgian plant, cutting 100 jobs.

Coming after Stellantis paused its light-fuel-cell commercial vehicle plans, it feels like another nail in a very expensive coffin. Yet, a second, more favorable wind is blowing from the East. 

Fresh data from SNE Research suggests that reports of hydrogen’s demise have been exaggerated. While Europe and Japan retreat, a quiet resurgence is underway in Asia’s industrial hubs, particularly in China and South Korea.

24% rise

Global sales of fuel cell vehicles actually climbed by 24.4 per cent last year, reaching just over 16,000 units. To an observer accustomed to the millions of EVs shipping from Shanghai and Berlin, this figure is a rounding error. But it represents the first significant growth for the hydrogen sector in years, challenging the Eurocentric gloom.

The market has become polarised. In Europe, FCEV sales plunged by 23 per cent. In contrast, the global rebound was driven entirely by China and South Korea. The critical distinction lies in the application.

While Europe agonised over passenger cars, China focused on the heavy lifters. The Chinese surge is powered almost exclusively by commercial operators who have realised that batteries cannot yet match the energy density required for long-haul logistics.

For a truck driver navigating the industrial corridor between Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the downtime required to charge a massive battery is lost revenue. Hydrogen offers a refuelling speed comparable to diesel.

For China’s state-backed logistics enterprises, efficiency is paramount. Unlike the blurred data of the past, recent figures confirm that commercial heavy-duty vehicles now dominate the Chinese hydrogen landscape.

Thanks to the new Nexo

This highlights a glaring weakness in European strategy. The EU’s AFIR regulation mandates hydrogen infrastructure every 200 km. But it operates as a ‘push’ mechanism: building stations for vehicles that largely don’t exist, with a strong focus on passenger cars, which use lower pressure.

China, by contrast, has coordinated its infrastructure rollout with the deployment of commercial fleets, ensuring that stations have customers from day one.

The uptick in South Korea is of a different kind and relates to the launch of the second-generation Nexo, which has sparked renewed buyer interest. A new car always triggers early adopters. The question is how sustainable the success is.

Kei car of alternative fuels?

As expected, the corporate leaderboard reflects the Asian shift. Hyundai remains the global volume leader with roughly 43 per cent of the market. Toyota holds second place, sticking to hydrogen as part of its ‘multi-pathway’ philosophy.

However, with Toyota’s FCEV sales (the Crown and the Mirai) declining nearly 40 per cent last year, its partnership with BMW to target mass production by 2028 for a jointly developed model looks increasingly like a lonely bet.

The shift from passenger dreams to commercial reality seems inevitable. The utilitarian hum of buses and waste trucks has replaced the romance of water-spewing exhaust pipes.

The recent sales spike is a lifeline, but hydrogen remains a stubborn outlier. Without a broader breakthrough, it risks morphing into an Asian specialty: the ‘kei car’ of alternative fuels.