WMO: ‘CO2 surges to new record, countries miles off track on Paris’ goal’

According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) accumulates in the atmosphere faster than ever experienced during human existence, increasing by more than 10% in just two decades.

“This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below two degrees Celsius and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

The current climate targets, the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), will only lead to an emissions reduction of 2.6 percent by 2030 compared to 2019. That figure is miles from the 43 percent reduction required to keep climate change below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Flagship publication

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin is one of WMO’s flagship publications. It was released to inform the UN Climate Change Conference, COP, and is now in its 20th issue.It reports on greenhouse gas concentrations rather than on emission levels.

Data analysis shows that just under half of CO₂ emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one-quarter are absorbed by the ocean, and just under 30% by land ecosystems—although there is considerable year-to-year variability in this because of naturally occurring phenomena like El Niño and La Niña.

The bulletin also warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in the carbon cycle. However, in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases.

Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, while the warmer ocean might absorb less CO₂. Consequently, more CO₂ could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming.

Human-related

As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere, leading to a rise in global temperature. Given the exceptionally long life of CO₂ in the atmosphere, the observed temperature will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to zero.

CO₂ is the single most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere related to human activities, accounting for approximately 64% of the warming effect on the climate, mainly because of fossil fuel combustion and cement production.

COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan)

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin complements the UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap report. Both were published ahead of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

All this is not good news at all for our planet and the climate. In addition, a recent UN report states that current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.

Bolder new climate plans are vital to driving stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, and more secure and affordable clean energy, among many other benefits.

Time for real-world results

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. By 2035, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limiting global warming to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters as climate disasters get rapidly worse.

COP29 (from 11 to 22 November) will be a vital moment in the world’s climate fight. Governments must come to Baku ready to convert the pledges made at COP28 –  tripling renewables, the global goal on adaptation, and transitioning away from all fossil fuels – into real-world, real-economy results, protecting people and their livelihoods everywhere.