EU car market stable, EV sales slowing down

According to data from ACEA, the European Manufacturers Association, new EU car registrations saw a modest increase (+0.2%) in July 2024. However, there were mixed results across the region’s four major markets: Italy (+4.7%) and Spain (+3.4%) recorded moderate gains, while the French (-2.3%) and German (-2.1%) markets experienced declines.

Seven months into 2024, new car registrations increased by 3.9%, reaching more than 6.5 million units. This is the result of a low comparison base. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.6%), Italy (+5.2%), Germany (+4.3%), and France (+2.2%) all recording growth.

By power source

In July, battery-electric cars accounted for 12.1% of the EU car market, down from 13.5% the previous year. Hybrid-electric vehicles increased their market share, growing from 25.5% to 32%. The combined share of gasoline and diesel cars fell to 46%, down from 50%.

EVs down, hybrids up

In July 2024, battery-electric (BEV) car registrations declined by 10.8% to 102,705 units, with their market share slipping to 12.1% from 13.5% a year before. Despite gains in Belgium (+44.2%), the Netherlands (+8.9%), and France (+1%), Germany’s decline (-36.8%) could not be offset. From January to July, 815,399 new battery-electric cars were registered, representing 12.5% of the market.

Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) car registrations declined (-14.1%) last month despite a 3.2% increase in Germany. In July, plug-in hybrids accounted for 6.8% of the total car market, down from 7.9% last year, with 57,679 units sold.

Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV) grew (again) in July, with car registrations rising by 25.7% to 273,003 units. All four of the largest markets for this segment recorded double-digit gains: France (+47.4%), Spain (+31.5%), Germany (+22.4%), and Italy (+17.4%). This growth pushed the hybrid-electric market share to 32%, up from 25.5% in July 2023.

Gasoline and diesel are clearly under 50% now

In July 2024, petrol car sales dropped by 7%. The modest growth in key markets such as Italy (+3.8%) and Germany (+0.1%) could not counteract declines in France (‑22.6%) and Spain (-12.5%). Gasoline cars now represent 33.4% of the market, down from 35.9% in July last year.

The diesel car market declined by 10.1%, resulting in a 12.6% share last July. While Germany experienced a moderate gain of 1.4%, substantial decreases were observed in other major markets like Italy (-24.6%), France (-23.9%), and Spain (-11.6%).

EFTA and UK

Looking at the registrations in the EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland) and the United Kingdom, we see the same tendencies. In the EFTA countries, electric cars (-6.1%) and plug-in hybrids (-24.5%) lost ground; hybrids increased by 18.9%. Gasoline and diesel regressed further: (-18.8% and -10.4% respectively).

In the UK, however, all electrified car versions still increased their share: BEVs by 18.8%, PHEVs by 12.4%, and HEVs by 19%. Gasoline (-15%) and diesel (-3%) further declinedine. Overall, the UK market grew slightly(+2.5%) in July.

By brand

Looking at the EU ranking by make, there’s little difference with earlier months. Volkswagen Group is still in the lead with a 26.9% market share, followed by Stellantis (16.1%), Renault Group (10.4%), Hyundai Group (8.8%), and Toyota Group (8.3%).

When we consider the first seven months, the ranking stays the same, with Hyundai and Toyota having the same market share (7.9%), but the Koreans are selling some 2,000 additional cars (for a total of more than 500,000 each).

In July, after the top five, we see (as usual) the two German premium brands, BMW Group (7.0% market share) and Mercedes-Benz (5.2%), in sixth and seventh place, followed by Ford (2.8%), Volvo Cars (2.6%), and SAIC Motor (1.7%). For the first time, a Chinese group comes in the top ten.

Looking at the first seven months, we see that Tesla is still in tenth place (2.1% market share) before Nissan (2.0%), Suzuki (1.7%), and SAIC Motor (1.4%). Noticeable is Jaguar’s decline, with 376 cars sold in July throughout the EU (compared to 859 last year, -56.2 %) and 3,943 cars sold during the first seven months (compared to 6,210 last year, -36.5%).

The result is that Mitsubishi is overtaking Jaguar Land Rover Group again, despite the modest sales increase for Land Rover (+4.4%). Mitsubishi saw its sales increase by 80.3% in the first seven months and Honda by 52.4%.

Transition technology

The decrease in fully electric sales in the EU is mainly due to the biggest market in Europe, Germany. The German customer doesn’t like BEVs (yet). Even the diesel cars are slightly increasing (+1.4%) and overtaking the fully electric vehicles again in July. Plug-in hybrids (+3.2%) and especially HEVs (+22.4%) are the new hype on the German market.

The size of this German market dissimulates a bit the progress BEVs are still making in many EU countries, such as Belgium (+44.2% in July), Croatia (+121.5%), Czechia (+75.2%), Denmark (+68.8%), Greece (+53.9%), Hungary (+63.9%), Luxembourg (+38.5%), Malta (+59.2%), Portugal (+23%), and Spain (+12.4%).

Nevertheless, a transition technology, hybrid drive, is gaining ground rapidly. Toyota has always been the forerunner in this respect. Still, many competitors, even Volkswagen, which has been betting on BEVs and PHEVs until now, are planning to offer more full-hybrid models again.

Many customers still fear buying real electric cars because of the higher price, range anxiety, uncertainty about the charging infrastructure, etc. However, the availability of more affordable BEVs, the market push of Chinese brands, and the start of an electric second-hand market can change this in the future.

EU legislation still foresees a complete ban on new ICE cars (and hybrids) by 2035. If the EU authorities keep this timetable, the hybrid drive will have been a relatively short transitional technology in Europe. In general, hybrid drives can provide a 5% to 30% economic gain in consumption, but they continue to emit a large amount of CO2 and other more toxic gases.

Environmental organizations, like Transport & Environment (T&E), point out that hybrids are an intermediate solution that should be abandoned as rapidly as possible. “It’s the most modern version of ICE cars, but hybrids can’t solve our energy transition problems,” underlines Leo Larivière from T&E.