Against prevalent perception, Belgian EV sales still soar

Are EV sales slowing down to near a standstill? Not in Belgium. Despite prevalent perception, EV sales are still soaring, with 96.233 new registrations in the first nine months of 2024, more than in the whole of 2023 (93,180). The same goes for second-hand EVs, 16,004 (January – September 2024) compared to 12,594 all year round in 2023.

The figures come from the Belgian car services federation Traxio, which remarks that this represents a rise of 45.2% of the total market for electric cars in Belgium. Also in private sales of new EVs, a sharp rise of +104,5% (from 6.267 to 12.813 units) is noticed.

Backfiring effect

The trend is quasi-entirely set by Flanders (81,5%), which hands out subsidies up to €5,000 for a new EV and €3,000 for a used one until the end of this year. However, Traxio warns that this could backfire in the next few years, as government support is shut off, like in Germany, where EV sales steeply dropped once the government scrapped the subsidy scheme almost overnight.

To show the effect of a subsidy, 10.438 new EVs were registered in Flanders, which is 145.5% more, while in Wallonia, 1,962 (+11.6%) and in Brussels, 413 (+60.7%) new electric cars were registered.

The most popular BEVs are the Tesla Model Y (6,988), followed by the de Audi Q4 E-TRON (6.658 ), the BMW iX1 (5,052), and the Volvo EX30 (4,635), with the Tesla Model 3 (4.150) still trying to keep up. They are all typical leasing or company cars from the middle segment.

It’s true that leased and company cars still account for the bulk of new EV sales (86.7%) compared to private sales (13.9%). However, the latter was only 9.1% versus 90.9% the year before, so something is moving.

Looking at the second-hand EV market, Flanders rules with 5,862 (+144,8%), Wallonia limps with 1,952 (+58.1%), and Brussels with 347 (+100.6%). In Flanders, a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros is still viable, which at first sight could explain the success, although the most popular used EVs are out of range for a subsidy.

The €3,000 Flemish subsidy is limited to cars with an original list value of no more than 60,000 euros. However, the figures are also positive in regions without incentives.

Cheaper and fiscally attractive company car

Regarding used cars, leasing or renting only accounts for a marginal 3% share, while the bulk are private buyers (48,7%) and companies (48.3%). Nevertheless, Traxio has noticed an increasing demand from companies for second-hand electric cars. They are fiscally attractive, cost a lot less when purchased, and appear to score well on reliability.

It’s interesting to see that for private buyers, the Porsche Taycan is the most wanted EV, besides the Model Y and Model 3 and some other ‘premium’ cars that cost an arm and a leg new, such as the Audi e-tron and the BMW iX, iX3, and i4. Companies prefer cheaper alternatives like the Model 3, the Nissan Leaf, or the Fiat 500.

Traxio sees an increasing number of electric cars becoming available after the end of the leasing contract. However, unlike combustion engines, there is no market for EVs in Eastern or Southern Europe.

Private individuals’ demand for second-hand EVs is still limited in the Belgian market. Traxio says that as a result, there is gradually an oversupply of second-hand EVs on the market. The rotation speed of EVs at second-hand dealers is significantly lower than that of cars with an internal combustion engine – including diesel.

“This leads to lower residual values for EVs than originally estimated – a phenomenon exacerbated by price drops and the arrival of cheaper models. For example, it turns out that the residual value of a Tesla Model 3 would be up to 30% lower after four years.”

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

So, while figures for EVs are positive in Belgium, where does the general perception come from that EVs are a shrinking phenomenon? Could it be that while in some countries like Germany, the decline—temporary or not—is confirmed, the rest of Europe thinks the glory days of EVs are over already? Which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

According to the latest figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), registrations of battery-electric (BEV) cars dropped by 43.9% in August 2024 to 92,627 units (compared to 165,204 in the same period last year). Their market share slipped to 14.4% from 21% a year before.

This was almost entirely driven by the spectacular drop in the two biggest markets for BEV cars: Germany (-68.8%) and France (-33.1%). Still, as dramatic as the drop in August may seem, from January to August, 902,011 new battery-electric vehicles were registered, representing 12.6% of the market compared to 13.9% in the year before.

In that light, France even saw a slight increase in EV market share in the first eight months, from 15.4 to 16.7%, while that share dropped in Germany from 18.7 to 12.7% over the same period. Increases are still shown in Denmark (31.6 to 46.9%), the Netherlands (29 to 31.4%), and Luxemburg (20.8 to 26.9%), like Belgium.

Pushing hybrid technology

The decline was barely perceptible in two of the other biggest markets, Spain (4.8 to 4.7%) and Italy (3.9 to 3.3%). However, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are still a tiny part of the market compared to classic hybrids (HEVs), which have shares of 39% (Italy) and 36.8% (Spain).

Today’s advertising for HEVs as the ‘cheaper’ middle way is a clearly visible sign that several European (and Japanese) carmakers are unwilling to give up ICE as soon as the EU might wish.