ICCT: Car manufacturers need 28% BEV share to meet EU CO2 targets

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has published a study on the CO2 reduction requirements of the ten largest car manufacturers to comply with the EU’s fleet limits for 2025.

On average, manufacturers must increase their BEV share by a maximum of twelve percentage points, from 16% in 2023 to around 28% by 2025.

According to the ICCT survey, Volkswagen and Ford are facing the most significant reduction efforts, with required CO2 reductions of around 21%. Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, and Toyota must also reduce their CO2 emissions by more than the average. BMW, Kia, and Stellantis are closest to their targets, with CO2 reductions of between 9 and 11%.

The ICCT’s ranking is thus similar to that of Dataforce, published in August and used by Transport & Environment (T&E) in their statement on the matter. In the Dataforce study, VW and Ford were the two car manufacturers with the greatest need to catch up with 123 and 125 g/km, respectively, and a target value of 93.6 grams of CO2 per kilometer.

Deviations

However, there are also deviations: Dataforce saw Toyota, Hyundai, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz roughly on par, with Stellantis and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi lying between this quartet and the duo of Volkswagen and Ford.

The ICCT assesses some manufacturers from this middle field differently. In the case of Mercedes-Benz, the difference between the two studies is only one gram. At the same time, Stellantis performs significantly better in the ICCT than in the Dataforce survey – with 105 instead of 113 grams, which noticeably changes the required proportion of electric cars. For Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, the difference is as much as three grams.

The current CO2 fleet emissions and the manufacturer-specific targets for 2025 can then be used to derive each manufacturer’s distribution of drive technologies. Volvo, for example, would not have to change anything, while the VW Group would have to increase its BEV sales from 13% in 2023 to 30%.

With a constant PHEV share of 6%, it would mean a decline in combustion engine sales from 81 to 64%. Although Toyota has more economical combustion engines, it has even fewer electric cars and would thus have to increase its BEV share from 3 to 16%, the ICCT calculates.

In BMW’s case, the increase from an EV share of 20% in 2023 to 27% next year seems realistic. The study mentioned above provides more details about the exact breakdown of all manufacturers.

Worst-case scenario

The ICCT points out that it is impossible to quantify the exact BEV share that individual manufacturers must reach to achieve their fleet limits. “Besides increasing their BEV sales share, compliance flexibilities within the legislation, technological progress, and adjusted marketing strategies offer manufacturers additional options to meet the targets. The study concludes that the 2025 targets seem to be within reach.”

Head of Europe Peter Mock told electrive that it is “a very conservative analysis, worst-case, so to speak. In reality, the BEV shares will be lower because the OEMs will also resort to other measures (and possible tricks).”

In addition to increasing the share of BEVs, manufacturers can also sell more plug-in hybrids or more efficient vehicles with combustion engines, for example, to reduce CO2 emissions, meaning that proportionately fewer BEVs would have to be sold.

Pure electric cars with zero CO2 emissions naturally have the most significant effect per vehicle. Finally, there is also the option of forming CO2 pools with other manufacturers. A manufacturer that exceeds its target value can join forces on paper with a car manufacturer that exceeds its targets. This has already been done in the past, in cooperation with solely BEV producer Tesla, for example.

Very feasible

No matter which path is chosen, the study concludes that achieving the 2025 CO2 targets is within reach, considering previous CO2 reductions, regulatory flexibility, and the available drive types and technologies.

“The CO2 reductions needed are about half of the previous reductions achieved by manufacturers,” notes ICCT. Between 2019 and 2021, manufacturers already reduced their emissions by 23%. Therefore, an average of 12% between 2023 and 2025 is possible.

According to the ICCT, the increase in BEV market share required for the hypothetical manufacturer pools is “about 1–1.5 times as high as the growth observed from 2019 to 2021. ”

This observation starkly contrasts what the car manufacturer’s CEOs communicated at the Paris Motor Show. Most of them plead for a revision or, at least, a delayed implementation of the CO2 targets already determined years ago.

It’s true that the whole automotive industry is struggling with a recalcitrant car market, but that is as true for the market in general and the sales of ICE cars as it is for BEV sales. Once again, car CEOs tend to blame other players in the field for their lack of initiative and mistakes.

The eternal song they are justly singing towards authorities is: “Give us clear definitions and rules for the future market, and we will make sure that it happens. Please don’t change over time by adapting these rules and regulations constantly.” This is so true, but it goes in both ways.