Copernicus: ‘2024 almost certainly warmest year and first year above 1.5°C’

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 will probably be the warmest year and the first year above 1.5 degrees Celsius. October 2024 was the second warmest October globally, after October 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80°C above the average for October from 1991-2020.

The average temperature over the past twelve months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

Global temperatures

The average temperature anomaly over the first ten months of 2024 (January – October 2024) is 0.71°C above the average for the period 1991-2020, which is the highest ever recorded for this period and 0.16°C warmer than the same period in 2023.

It is now almost certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The annual temperature for 2024 will likely be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and perhaps even more than 1.55°C above.

Europe and elsewhere

European temperatures were above average across almost the entire continent. The average temperature for mainland Europe in October 2024 was 10.83°C, 1.23°C above the average for October from 1991-2020. October 2022 was the warmest October on record, with 1.92°C above average.

Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average in northern Canada, and well above average in the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan, and Australia.

Sea and ice

The average sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 (over 60°S-60°N) was 20.68°C, the second-highest recorded value for that month. The Arctic sea ice reached its 4th lowest monthly extent in October, 19% below average.

In October 2024, above-average precipitation fell on the Iberian Peninsula, France, northern Italy, Norway, northern Sweden, and east of the Black Sea. Heavy rainfall led to severe flooding in the Valencia region, Spain, with more than 200 fatalities.

Precipitation and drought

Drier than average conditions were observed over most of the United States, the central lowlands of Australia, much of southern Africa, Madagascar, and parts of Argentina and Chile. The ongoing drought in the United States has affected a record number of people.

The CCCS publishes monthly climate bulletins on observed changes in global air and sea surface temperatures, sea ice cover, and hydrological variables. Most findings are based on measurements from aircraft, ships, satellites, and weather stations around the world.