European environmental lobby group Transport & Environment has published a study with the Clean Cities Campaign that the supply of electric vans will be enough by 2030 to introduce zero-emission zones for freight in every European capital. But a few asterisks remain.
The EU’s more stringent ambient air quality directive (AAQD), which comes into effect in 2030, will require cities to introduce zero-emission zones to improve air quality and lower pollution.
The first examples of these zones, where only emissions-free vehicles are allowed to enter (for free), already exists in Oxford since 2022, while Amsterdam and The Hague will follow in 2025.
Electric van market share is still small
However, whereas the uptake of electric vehicles has already taken off in the passenger vehicle market, the market share of zero-emissions commercial vehicles still remains marginal. According to the ACEA, only 5.8% of new vans registered in the first half of 2024 are electric in Europe, which is actually less than in the same period last year (6.9%).
So, will there be enough electric vans by 2030 to make the business sustainable for professionals operating in European city centers? According to Transport & Environment, the answer is yes.
It has published a new study claiming that 3.9 million e-vans will be sold in the EU and UK between 2025 and 2030, which would theoretically be enough to allow all EU capitals to introduce zero-emission zones… for large freight fleets.
Only for large fleets
Indeed, this study doesn’t assume every plumber and electrician will have to switch to electric by 2030, but just larger companies like parcel services operating with a fleet of 20 vans or more.
Several estimates are made to support this supply figure of 3.9 million electric vans. By 2026, more electric light commercial vehicles will be available on the market than combustion-powered models (48 vs. 46 models).
More choice and a lower price
According to T&E, price parity will be achieved in 2027, meaning electric models will become cheaper than diesel vans, assuming battery prices continue to drop. The TCO of electric vans is already favorable compared to diesel when considering financial incentives.
T&E also assumes the range of e-vans will be sufficient for most professionals by 2030. Today, there are 3 models on the market with a WLTP range of over 330 km, while delivery vans drive 193 (B2B) to 254 km (B2C) a day on average. However, there is a difference between the theoretical range and a fully loaded e-van in practice.
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