Boeing 777X and Airbus A321 XLR coming soon

Boeing’s 777X, the biggest dual-engine commercial airplane in the world, is expected to fly through the skies starting in 2025. The American aircraft manufacturer also expects that the global fleet of commercial aircraft will grow to more than 50,000 aircraft in 20 years, about double its current fleet.

Major competitor Airbus is not sitting idle either. The European aircraft manufacturer has obtained a certification from the European air regulator for the A321 XLR, a single-aisle aircraft capable of long-haul routes traditionally for wide-body aircraft, paving the way for its entry into service.

All hopes on the 777X

Boeing expects that of the approximately 26,759 commercial aircraft currently in service (passenger and cargo), only 6,195 will be flying in 20 years.

In other words, by 2043, nearly 44,000 new aircraft, including more than 33,000 single-aisle aircraft and 8,000 two-aisle aircraft, will have to roll off the assembly line of aircraft manufacturers to meet demand.

The number of two-aisle aircraft is expected to nearly double – the largest fleet is expected to be in the Middle East (44%) – and the number of cargo aircraft is expected to increase by two-thirds to 3,900 due to the explosion of e-commerce. Cargo expects to ship more than 10,000 tons of freight daily, equivalent to the cargo of 100 Boeing 777F.

Meanwhile, Boeing hopes that the 777X will boost its long-delayed plane program. The 777X is worth some 198 million dollars and is the industry’s largest twin-engine jet with around 400 seats, but its entry into service has been delayed by five years due to problems, including certification delays.

More than 500 orders for Airbus’ A320 XLR

Airbus also expects the world fleet to double within 20 years. In doing so, the European aircraft manufacturer expects a lot from the XLR, which stands for Extra Long Range, an aircraft designed to attack the so-called ‘mid-market’ segment between medium-haul aircraft such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 and widebody aircraft (Airbus A330 and A350, Boeing 878 and 777), and so far occupied by the Boeing 757, an aircraft that has not been produced for 20 years.

And with success: since launching the program in 2019, Airbus has secured more than 500 orders. Indian low-cost airline IndiGo bought 70, US majors American Airlines and United 50 each.

Spanish airline Iberia will receive the first aircraft by the end of the summer and deploy it on the Madrid-Boston route.

Stricter certification process

Meanwhile, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the US FAA have tightened the certification process since the Boeing 737 Max crisis, which revealed shortcomings in the authorities’ oversight process and the production and quality problems in which the US aircraft maker remains embroiled.

For example, a new regulatory requirement from EASA is that the aircraft must also be able to land on its belly as if it had no engines or landing gear. To increase the range of the A321 XLR, however, Airbus added an additional 12,900-liter tank in the fuselage at the rear of the wings. As a result, the belly fairing was also extended so that the rear center tank could be completely covered, and the structure significantly strengthened.

That extra weight will reduce the promised range of 4,700 miles, or 8,700 km, by 93 to 167 km but only 10 to 20% of operations will be affected by this reduced autonomy and Airbus is going to do everything it can to regain it.

Game changer

But Airbus already has its European certification in its pocket, which means the aircraft meets all the stringent aviation safety requirements imposed by EASA. According to Jerome Bouchard, aviation expert at Oliver Wyman, the A321 XLR could be a game changer.

“With lower operating and CO2 costs, but probably also operational costs associated with the reduced number of pilots, the plane will be able to cross the Atlantic or fly from one coast to another in the US.

The aircraft will also allow airlines to test new destinations and profitably develop low-traffic long-haul routes by carrying only between 172 and 244 passengers, depending on configuration, 100 less than with a widebody aircraft. Even though the aircraft has only one aisle, meaning there is little space, the passenger experience in terms of comfort would still be very similar.

Still delivery delays

The fact remains that the world fleet is expected to grow slower (+3,2%) than air traffic (+4,7%) because companies continue to increase productivity by flying more aircraft, among other things.

This is helped by the fact that new technologies in new generations of aircraft require less maintenance, although maintenance, repair, and general services are still expected to represent a 4.4 trillion dollar market in 2043 and employ 85 million people—up from 43 million in 2023.

Due to production, quality control, and delivery problems, Boeing and Airbus, the world’s two largest manufacturers, are experiencing delivery delays, and their order books are full until the end of the decade.

The current shortfall is estimated at 2,000 aircraft, forcing airlines to expand the operation of their fleets with lower capacities and dated technical characteristics, particularly concerning polluting emissions.