T&E study: Aviation growth will negate all efforts to green

Whatever efforts the aviation sector makes to meet climate goals will be in vain because of the predicted growth in air traffic, reports Transport & Environment in a new rapport, a screening of European environmental targets for air traffic. According to the NGO, the EU must develop measures to regulate air traffic growth to reduce CO2 emissions in the sector effectively.

T&E’s findings are not new. Several years ago, the International Civil Aviation Organization stated in a study that CO2 emissions from aviation would double or even triple by 2050 compared to 2015 without additional measures. However, the T&E report is another warning that the industry and travelers must think hard about their carbon footprint.

To 9 billion passengers

According to aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, airline passengers will double between 2019 and 2050. Based on ICAO global statistics, this means that compared to the 4.5 billion passengers on scheduled services in 2019, there will be around 9 billion by 2050 – or the world’s projected population by 2050.

Forecasts, therefore, indicate that there will likely be 16 million flights worldwide by 2050, an increase in demand of 44% over 2019 at an average annual rise of 1.2% per year.

SAFs won’t help

To meet this demand, T&E estimates that aircraft departing from Europe alone will consume 59% more fuel than they do today. Or around 70 million tons of fuel annually.

Even switching to Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs)—the EU’s law on green fuels will require the use of 42% of SAFs—will hardly change the picture because the amount of fossil fuel needed to accommodate the growth in air traffic will still be the same as the number of tons of kerosene required in 2019, approximately 40 million tons.

CO2 emissions in 2049 would also be virtually equivalent to those in 2019. This is less true in 2050, when SAF incorporation will rise from 42% to 70%, significantly reducing emissions without stopping them.

More synthetic fuels are needed

Furthermore, the NGO also questions whether the energy industry can produce enough SAFs to meet demand, a shortcoming that the aviation industry has also raised. Plus, not all available biofuels are genuinely sustainable.

According to the study, due to the scarcity in the market, Europe will probably have to import up to 80% of biofuels, while the real decarbonization potential of those SAFs is very doubtful—4 out of every 5 liters of bio-kerosene is not truly sustainable.

T&E, therefore, calls for a more significant commitment to developing and producing synthetic fuels or e-fuels because less green electricity is needed to make them compared to SAFs. For example, meeting Europe’s needs for SAFs in 2050 would require 585 TWh of renewable electricity, something more than Germany’s current electricity consumption.

“Under the Airbus and Boeing growth scenarios, by 2049, European aviation emissions will thus only be 3% lower than in 2019,” states T&E. “And in 2050, when the EU pledged to have reached net zero GHG emissions, the sector will still emit 79 million tons of CO2. At this rate, Europe’s aviation sector will deplete its carbon budget by 2026.”

Limit the growth of EU air traffic

T&E sees only one solution to meet the climate goals for the aviation sector to reduce its emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990: to limit the growth of air traffic in Europe and do something about frequent flying and under-taxation of the sector. If not, an additional 960 million tons of CO2 could be emitted between 2023 and 2050 compared with the European Commission’s modeling.

In doing so, it even advocates “public policy measures to ensure that growth levels are effectively controlled,” something that will be anything but met with applause from airline CEOs and various shareholders.

So, work on the shelf for Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the new European Commissioner for Transport, especially as the follow-up to the now slimmed-down European Green Deal should soon take shape.